Waxing Prediculous

By: Andrew Walker

(1) Spurs vs (8) Grizzlies


Season Series: 2-2

This won’t be your classic one-sided 1 seed vs 8 seed series. It’s the classic battle between youth and athleticism and experience and fundamentals.

The Spurs have played beyond anyone’s expectations. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili led the team to the best regular season record despite injuries to key players, Tony Parker’s personal matters, and being one of the oldest teams in the NBA. The Spurs, who started the season as the hottest in the NBA, have cooled down since the All-Star break and are coming into the playoffs looking vulnerable.

The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are coming into the playoffs on a great post-All-Star break run and have lots of momentum. The combination of the youth and no expectations and an injury to Manu Ginobili may give the Grizzlies the ability to be the 4th eight seed to beat a one seed.

The Spurs remind me of the ’07 Dallas Mavericks who went into the 2007 playoffs with the best record in basketball and #1 seed and were caught off-guard by the youthful and energetic eighth seeded Golden State Warriors. The Warriors beat the Mavs 4-2 and ended my perception of Dallas being a serious basketball team.

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My Prediction: This will be a tough and physical series that will go to Game 7. Ultimately, San Antonio’s superior coach, experience, personnel, and home court advantage will be the difference in the series. The Spurs beat the Grizzlies 4-3.

(2) Lakers vs (7) Hornets

Season Series: 4-0 

The Lakers played red-hot post All-Star break and were virtually unbeatable. Then, the last 10 games came, the Lakers stumbled, and were a missed Kobe Bryant 3-pointer away from being the #3 seed in the Western Conference. The Laker Nation is hoping the near-loss to the Sacramento Kings won’t be a harbinger or reflection on what to expect in the playoffs.

The Hornets are also struggling coming into the post-season with the recent season-ending injury to key player David West, losing 5 of their last 10 games to beatable opponents, and face questions on whether Chris Paul’s knee will hold up for the post-season. On top of those issues, the Hornets face the possibility of team contraction and these may be the last games of the Hornets franchise.

The Lakers very likely played the last game ever against the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night. The Lakers may be the bearers of bad news once again as the Hornets face contraction and may never play an opponent again.

The Hornets have matchup problems all over the court and only have the advantage of having a better point guard (assuming CP3’s knee holds up). The Lakers have every other matchup advantage and will likely make quick work of the Hornets.

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My Prediction: The Lakers took the regular season series 4-0 and I expect Kobe and Company to make quick work of and sweep the Hornets.

(3) Mavericks vs (6) Trail Blazers


Season Series: 2-2

Everyone is touting this series as the upset of the first round. The Mavericks, per usual, look weak coming into the playoffs and age is taking its toll. Dirk Nowitzki has carried the Mavs for the last decade and one has to wonder if his magic ends this season.

The Trail Blazers have played pretty strong throughout the season, but have improved since adding swingman Gerald Wallace and will be better defensively with a healthy Marcus Camby back in the rotation. Combine those elements with a great home court advantage and it’s unsurprising that the Blazers have a decent shot of beating the Mavs.

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My Prediction: Both teams are deep and have some of the most energetic fans in the NBA. This will be a hard-fought series that will go to Game 7, where the Mavericks’ home court advantage will be the difference. The Mavs win the series 4-3.

(4) Thunder vs (5) Nuggets

Season Series: 3-1

Get ready for a track meet. This match up has the potential to be the most exciting matchup the playoffs in years. As the Lakers, Spurs, and Celtics breathe their last gasps of relevance, teams like the Thunder and Nuggets will make their cases this post-season for their ascendency as the new top dogs in the league.

The Thunder came into the season with lofty expectations after giving the Lakers fits last post-season. Durant and Westbrook grew up significantly in the off-season in the World Championships and seemed to be one piece away from being series title contenders. Then it happened; the missing piece fell into the Thunder’s lap when the Celtics, for reasons Boston fans can’t understand, traded Kendrick Perkins to the Thunder for Jeff Green. Armed with a strong young nucleus and some muscle down low, the Thunder has a shot of beating anyone this post-season.

The Nuggets have weathered an incredibly difficult storm all season. Dogged with rumors and constant conversations over the fate of Carmelo Anthony, Denver has been poised, showed maturity and class and somehow found ways to win this season and are entering the playoffs playing their best basketball.

Denver is no longer a one man team; now, the Nuggets are truly a 10 player team. The Nuggets lack traditional NBA stars, but they play well as a team and happily distribute the ball, play decent defense, and do whatever is necessary to win games. The question is, will it be a problem that Denver doesn’t have the designated player to take over at the end of games and hit the final shot?

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My Prediction: The Thunder win the series in 6 games as the Nuggets are slowed down by injuries to Arron Afflalo, Chris Andersen, and Ty Lawson. TiVo, DVR, or VHS this series because the games are going to be fun to watch and the series has the potential to be an instant classic.

(Source: prediculous.com)